Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 set ablaze the bloodiest conflict in Europe since World War II. The former Soviet republic had deep cultural, economic, and political ties with Russia, and many experts saw its war with Moscow as a manifestation of renewed great-power rivalry that will shape international security in the decades to come.

But the Kremlin’s dream of turning Ukraine into a buffer state for Russia and a springboard for future aggression has been met with a steadfast resistance. Ukrainian forces have been bolstered by billions of dollars in military aid from the West, and many of them gained valuable combat experience fighting against Russian proxies in the Donbas. The inability of the Russian military to advance close to Kyiv has shattered the myth of the invincible Russian military machine. Meanwhile, Ukrainians have demonstrated remarkable resilience in restoring power, heat, and water utilities, even under constant threat of Russian missile attacks.

In the end, Ukraine will be the winner in this struggle. Russia will be left with a badly damaged military that will take years to repair; a year or more of likely economic stagnation cut off from key high-tech imports; a debilitating isolation from the global financial system and major energy export markets; and an increasingly alarmed and alienated Europe that may be less willing to help in the event of future aggression.