Nine months into Russia’s latest invasion, the war looks set to drag on. The Kremlin appears incapable of taking Kyiv or occupying a major portion of Ukraine and, moreover, it has suffered huge losses in manpower and material. Even apolitical Ukrainians who Moscow expected to line up on its side have denounced the invasion and fought back. The flood of collaborators it hoped for to run occupation administrations in places like Kherson has not materialized, and the new leaders of Ukraine, Poroshenko and Zelensky, prioritize deepening ties with Europe as a hedge against Russian intervention.

The persistence of Russia’s aggression reflects not only its determination to keep Ukraine from joining NATO but also a profound aspiration to dominate the country politically, militarily and economically. Its strategy to do so has been multifaceted, involving a combination of carrots and sticks. For example, it has used the threat of a trade and energy blockade to punish Ukraine’s economy, while at the same time encouraging pro-Russian separatists in Donbas to destabilize the country through their own actions.

Throughout, Putin has emphasized the idea that Russians and Ukrainians comprise “one people,” whose common history implies a shared political fate. This claim has a long pedigree in elite Russian circles and continues to shape not only discourse but political practice. It is why, despite Ukrainian protests and a massive international campaign, Russia has been able to justify its invasion as an entirely legitimate response to perceived threats from Ukraine’s neo-Nazi junta.