Russian Vs Ukraine

The war that began in 2014 with the covert invasion of Crimea and expanded into an all-out attack on Ukraine has been a disaster for both countries. It has cost thousands of lives, forced some 13 million people to leave their homes as refugees or internally displaced in Ukraine and left hundreds of billions of dollars in damage to infrastructure and property. It has shattered Putin’s image among many Western leaders, who view Russia as a reckless invader bent on destroying its neighbor. The flood of collaborators that Moscow hoped would line up to run occupation administrations in places like Kherson has failed to materialize, and even apolitical Ukrainians who might have sided with Moscow have fought back or denounced the invasion.

Despite the heavy losses Ukraine has suffered, most security analysts see no possibility of a quick end to the conflict. At a minimum, a Ukrainian breakthrough in southern Ukraine would require significant offensive operations against a well-entrenched Russian army. Such an operation would likely take months or years to conduct, and it could trigger a new round of escalatory military actions from both sides.

Even if Ukraine manages to overcome these obstacles, its victory in southern Ukraine will be unlikely to end the conflict or open the door to meaningful talks with Moscow. The reason is that, for all its flaws, the Ukrainian government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy has set clear national objectives and embraced a European identity. Moreover, the national security strategy approved by Zelenskyy in September 2020 leaves little room for bargaining with Putin.