When Vladimir Putin launched a major Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, he appeared to be wagering that most Ukrainians would not resist the incursion and that enough of them, particularly in eastern Ukraine, would accept some form of integration into a Russia-dominated sphere of influence because of their cultural, linguistic, and family ties. This wager seemed not unreasonable, given that, at the time of the annexation of Crimea and the war in the east, a substantial minority of Ukrainians self-identified as Russian citizens.

The calamity that has ensued since Russia began its assault on Ukraine shows that Moscow’s hubris rested on a fundamental misunderstanding of the depth and breadth of Ukrainian identity. This was evident in the presidential elections that Kyiv held in 2014 and 2019, when pro-Western candidates (including Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelensky) won comfortable majorities in Ukraine’s western oblasts, while the heirs of Soviet-era Communist leaders (including Leonid Kravchuk and Leonid Brezhnev) garnered far less support from Ukrainians living in the east.

In addition, the war has helped bolster Ukraine’s national unity and the sense of its own independence. A recent poll found that 85% of Ukrainians identify themselves as Ukrainian citizens rather than members of some region or ethnic group, and many more now view Russia as an enemy.

Meanwhile, the United States and other nations have stepped up support for Ukraine in a variety of ways. They have provided air defense systems, artillery, ammunition and more. The brutality of the Russian missile campaign has prompted these countries to step up pressures on Russia to end the war and hold accountable those responsible for its crimes against humanity in Ukraine.