The Russian invasion of Ukraine is an epic military disaster, but Putin’s odds of establishing a long-term protectorate appear to be diminishing with every day that Ukrainian resistance holds out.

The war has exposed a fundamental gap between the Russia of Vladimir Putin and the Ukraine of Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. It has brought together citizens from across Ukraine’s geographical, linguistic, and religious divides in the struggle for a future that satisfies their sense of identity and history. It has also consolidated the country’s separation from the Russian state and from the idea that its inhabitants belong to an all-Russian nation.

Russia’s preparations for the current war centered on mobilizing collaborators among Ukrainians in the areas it occupies, but even apolitical citizens whose financial or other interests might have led them to line up with Moscow’s regime have fought back against the invasion and denounced it. The flood of collaborators that Moscow expected to run occupation administrations in places like Kherson has not materialized.

In addition, Western sanctions have stifled Ukraine’s economy and cut its ability to purchase weapons from outside sources, leaving the government with limited options to counter the Russian threat. In contrast, China is positioned to benefit from the conflict by providing a market for Russian exports currently sanctioned by the West and increasing its access to natural gas. This allows Beijing to make a major geopolitical play in East Asia while the United States and its NATO allies focus on Ukraine’s defense.