Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is now the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II. It has sparked an enormous refugee crisis. The Russian President Vladimir Putin has stepped up his deployment of rockets and missiles along the border. He has also ordered 300,000 additional troops to be deployed.
Moscow needs a lengthy pause in the fighting to rebuild its combat-ready ground troops. A Russian army of one million is too much for Ukrainian troops.
Putin has made the case that Ukraine unfairly received historic Russian lands during Soviet times. His goal is to retain these gains and prevent further shifts in borders.
The Kremlin has backed this argument with the claim that Ukraine has failed to comply with the terms of the 2015 peace deal. Putin has threatened to use nuclear weapons to defend Russia’s territorial integrity.
Russia is deploying a massive arsenal of rockets and missiles along the Ukraine border. However, most experts say that Moscow would face stronger resistance if it launched a large-scale offensive into Ukrainian territory.
Most security analysts believe that there will be very little chance for diplomacy in the months ahead. Ukraine has already signed an agreement with the EU to develop a joint military response to the war.
Western leaders dismissed Putin’s claims as baseless propaganda. However, Putin has stressed Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO.
There is a risk that a war in Ukraine could have a devastating impact on the global economy. But there are peaceful solutions that can keep the territorial integrity of Ukraine intact.