The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has the makings of a Cold War scene, with an unpredictable Russian president amassing tanks on his neighbor’s border. As the fighting heats up, Russia is poised to declare victory, and the situation could quickly escalate into a bloody East-West conflagration. If this is the endgame of the conflict, then we should be wary of the prevailing strategy.

If Putin is serious about redrawing the map of Europe, he may be on to something. A war in Ukraine could destroy the European Union, and cost hundreds of thousands of civilian lives. It’s unclear what will happen next, but there are some warning signs. Moscow has used misinformation tactics to deceive Ukraine and may even jam communications. In the meantime, it has yet to declare war, but its recent statements seem to imply that they will take action.

The Russian army has made advances in the south, isolating the city of Mariupol, but having difficulty in the north. Despite these successes, Ukrainian forces have fought back against the invasion, successfully defending Kharkiv, Chernihiv, and other important cities. Whether this will lead to a full-scale war or a peace settlement is unclear. If this continues, there’s no reason to panic.