The war in Ukraine is a calamity for millions of people. It has deprived them of economic security, shattered public services, and eroded Ukraine’s fragile health system. Thousands have died and many more have been displaced. It has also strained global food supplies and damaged global trade networks. And it threatens the health of millions of others across the planet, including people living in Yemen and Libya, who face high levels of malnutrition.

As a result, the conflict is having profound geopolitical ramifications. It has shifted the balance of power in Europe, and it is reshaping global security architecture. It is also accelerating the consolidation of a Ukrainian national identity that is at odds with the notion of an all-Russian nation.

Russia’s calculations about Ukraine’s national identity were based on a faulty assumption. After Yanukovych rejected an association agreement with the EU, Moscow sought to lure him back into the fold with a mix of carrots and sticks, but it failed to reckon with the fury of millions of ordinary Ukrainians who felt betrayed.

Moreover, as the conflict has dragged on, Ukraine’s leaders have prioritized deepening ties with the Euro-Atlantic West as a hedge against future Russian aggression. Even so, it will take years, if not decades, to overcome the enmity toward Russia and Russians engendered by the war. And it may be impossible to fully rebuild a shattered economy without a peace deal that addresses the root causes of the conflict.