The stalemate

For the past year and a half, Ukrainian forces have struggled to break Russia’s grip on Ukraine. Russia has lost tens of thousands of soldiers, and the conflict has killed over a million civilians. Millions more have been displaced or fled. Ukraine has regained some territory, but the frontlines have been largely stable since February 2023. Amid the military stalemate, Ukraine’s Western allies have pledged new and more sophisticated military aid.

Despite these setbacks, Ukraine’s pro-Western leaders, billionaire businessman Petro Poroshenko and Volodymyr Zelensky, remain popular. They prioritize strengthening ties with the Euro-Atlantic West as a hedge against further Russian aggression. Moreover, Russia’s war against Ukraine has galvanized Ukraine’s long-drift toward Europe. Polls show that most Ukrainians, outside Crimea and the contested eastern regions, now support EU and NATO membership.

After Yanukovych’s hasty flight in February 2014, protests grew into a revolution. Even in Russia-speaking areas, the demonstrators denounced Russian domination and sought to remove symbols of its power, including statues of Lenin. Violence by Yanukovych’s security forces only radicalized the movement, and it spread to other Ukrainian cities. Eventually, a political compromise was reached for a managed transition.