On 24 February 2022, Russian forces invaded Ukraine in what Moscow called a “special military operation.” Although Western intelligence agencies had known that the Russians were planning an assault for weeks, few expected that it would involve an invasion of Kyiv or lead to a major confrontation with the Ukrainian army.

The escalation of the conflict shattered Russia’s relationship with the West and ended all attempts at rapprochement. It also polarized attitudes about Ukraine within Russia itself, creating deep divisions between those who insist on “seeing the special operation through” (including the complete Russification of Ukraine and denial of its nationhood and statehood) and those who are willing to cut their losses, declare victory, and negotiate peace terms.

As the war drags on, the average person in Ukraine grows numb to it. The conflict’s duration has reduced concerns about basic living conditions and the loss of employment to worries about whether their children are being sent to fight a war in their stead. The war has also created new divisions between Ukraine and its neighbors, especially Belarus and Moldova, which have been left to fend for themselves against Russian aggression.

The invasion of Ukraine has heightened concerns about the stability of the European Union and the future of the NATO alliance. It has made many in the EU and the United States question the wisdom of reviving the Partnership for Peace programme, which aimed to promote regional co-operation and create a zone of peace around Russia. It has also made them rethink the value of a nuclear arms treaty, which they now feel is in danger of being weakened.