The stunning aerial video showing a Russian jet buzzing and then apparently hitting a US drone over the Black Sea vividly demonstrates how close to war Russia is. While the incident prompted angry rhetoric from both sides, it seems that both countries are determined to avoid a full-blown clash.

That’s good news, because a war between the two nuclear superpowers would have profound consequences for the world. It could destabilize Europe, create a dangerous confrontation in the Arctic and threaten much of the world’s economy.

But there are reasons to be skeptical about the ability of Washington and its allies to keep this conflict contained. Even if the United States and Ukraine can find ways to increase their level of support for Kiev, there is a real risk that the Kremlin will perceive this as a victory in its struggle against what it sees as a Western plot to overthrow the Russian government.

In addition, the U.S. military is a long way from regaining the air superiority that it enjoyed over vast swaths of the Middle East for decades, and Russia has powerful anti-stealth systems and a large number of sophisticated surface-to-air missiles. As a result, the static airpower picture makes it highly likely that any war against Russia will be fought largely by land and sea.

Still, there is a lot of room for creative approaches that reduce the risk of an uncontrolled war between Russia and its allies. In particular, it’s worth exploring how different war trajectories might affect U.S. interests, rather than simply promising that America will defend its allies in the future. Views of NATO vary by political affiliation, with Democrats, those with higher education and those who think the United States should be active in world affairs having more positive views.