With Russia threatening to invade Ukraine and the US warning that it would counter any Russian aggression, many are using loaded terms like “cold war” or “new Cold War.” But this new phase of conflict is very different from the one between democratic and communist states in the 1940s to 1980s. By almost any measure except for nuclear weapons, the United States is far stronger than Russia. But the war in Ukraine and a series of battlefield defeats have exposed the myth that Russia’s post-Soviet super power strength makes Vladimir Putin a credible threat to direct Western intervention.

A military confrontation between the US and Russia could have devastating consequences for the global economy. The United States and Russia have a large number of common interests that can be leveraged to prevent a full-scale war. Yet there are impediments to a diplomatic solution that will require the leadership of both countries and their closest allies.

US leaders should be clear with European citizens that a war with Russia will not change Europe’s basic foreign policy instincts toward cooperation and multilateralism. They should also emphasize that a US-China conflict will have massive economic implications for Europe, even if the continent remains neutral in that contest. It will also reinforce Europe’s desire to de-risk from China and reduce its dependency on American security guarantees.